The word Likely asks about odds. Historical stats can tell us which happens more, but not necessarily which concerns “me”.
I’m not being snarky here. You make a valid point. But what conclusion are we to draw from it?
People make judgment calls (and form beliefs) based on their own personal experience, and what they see happening in their communities. Generalized statistics don’t really enter into it all that often.
Of course people have widely different experiences. And so they have widely differing views on what is and is not more likely to happen to them personally. This informs their view of what is more likely to happen in general. Someone who lives in the projects of Philly may well have a very different experience of law enforcement than someone who grew up in a gated community in the burbs.
And so it is not surprising that people have widely different views on what the trade-off should be here. Some people think the law does it exactly right. Others think it’s wrong, and have many different reasons for thinking so. The law tries to strike a balance that reflects the right values for the right reasons.
That’s one of the wonderful things about the law: it’s sort of an ongoing rulebook for society, encapsulating the mores and cultural beliefs of a vast and heterogenous population, and reflecting how they change over time. The study of law is nothing less than the grand study of the human condition.
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