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General deterrence comes merely from the general perception that the guilty are likely to be caught and punished. This perception doesn't come from the actual sentences that get handed down, because nobody ever hears about them. This perception comes more from TV, movies, and urban legend than from any actual data. Meanwhile, the specific deterrence of a given sentence is also negligible. Those who are deterred are not affected by the length of the sentence, but rather the desire to avoid ANY sentence in the future. But recidivists choose to re-offend regardless of the sentence they received, often ratcheting up longer and longer sentences without any deterrent effect.


The Illustrated Guide to Criminal Law
Chapter 4: Deterrence 
Page 8: Negligible Effect

NARRATOR

In sentencing a typical offender to, say, 5 years in prison, the general deterrence that results is basically ZERO. Because almost nobody will ever know about it.

The perception that drives GENERAL deterrence comes merely from one’s overall impression of how likely it is that, in this community, the guilty will be caught and then punished. This impression is more likely to come from TV, movies and urban legend than from any actual data.

Meanwhile, the SPECIFIC deterrence of giving John Doe those 5 years is also negligible. Those who ARE deterred are not affected by the length of the sentence, so much as the desire to avoid ANY sentence in the future.

Recidivists, meanwhile, choose to re-offend regardless of the sentence they received, often ratcheting up longer and longer sentences without any apparent effect.

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